Guardian what if ireland

The European Commission plans to unveil its response to his July proposals next week, but has ruled out renegotiation. Frost evidently fears the EU will not go far enough, telling Tory activists he may have no choice but to trigger article But many Brexit deadlines have come and gone. And nobody rules out that the government may move into uncharted waters by triggering article What may happen if article 16 of Northern Ireland protocol is triggered?

Does article 16 cancel the protocol? Speaking in the House of Lords on Wednesday, Frost said he still believed the talks over Northern Ireland, now in their fourth week, could be successful and urged the EU to be calm.

The invoking of article 16 would not immediately have a huge impact on the ground. This is because many of the checks have already been unilaterally suspended by the UK and the article 16 process itself triggers a formal dispute process that requires both sides to go into talks to resolve the dispute. Lisa O'Carroll Brexit correspondent. Frost reiterated, however, that the UK was willing to trigger article 16 — and warned that Downing Street would not sit back and accept retaliatory measures from the EU.

Lord Frost has repeatedly said the conditions to trigger it are met because of the obstruction to trade flow between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. But the invoking of article 16 will not have a huge impact on the ground. This is because many of the checks have already been unilaterally suspended by the UK and the article 16 process itself triggers a formal dispute process that requires both sides to go into talks to resolve the dispute. The fear is the UK will go much, much further and use the breakdown of talks to drive through domestic legislation to dump the role of the European court of justice in the arbitration process, something that cannot be achieved through article The Brexit minister, Lord Frost, has repeatedly made the ECJ a red line so many expect that triggering article 16 will be involve multiple connected actions.

The EU could not retaliate immediately under the arbitration process. However, it has gameplanned various scenarios and many believe a move to abandon the ECJ through domestic legislation would be tantamount to the UK walking away from the international withdrawal agreement. So the language used by both sides will indicate whether the UK and the EU are ready to go on a trade war footing.